Australia’s East To Shiver Some More, With Widespread Snow Inbound; China Commissions New Icebreaker; WHOI To Start Risky Ocean Geoengineering Experiment Next Month; + Shifting Baseline Syndrome

Cap Allon

Australia’s East To Shiver Some More, With Widespread Snow Inbound

Eastern Australia has been enduring a persistent, record-setting cold for weeks, and a new polar front is forecast to bring snow to large parts of the southeast next week.

Millions of Aussies are bracing for further frigid conditions commencing this weekend, as fresh polar winds ride north from Antarctica–which itself is currently enduring lows of sub -75C (-103F) at the likes of Vostok.

Sky News Australia Meteorologist Alison Osbourne noted that theme for Victoria, NSW, and Queensland will continue to be below-average cold. “A low-pressure system is deepening and cradling across the southern Tasman, while a high-pressure system remains slow-moving in the southern ocean,” she explained. “Strong, cold southerly winds will bring plenty of wet weather.”

By next Tuesday, ‘blues’ will have engulfed Eastern Australia, bringing chilling single-digit temperatures even in the afternoons. Southern Queensland, including the Darling Downs and Toowoomba, is preparing for its coldest days in years.

The Sunshine State might even see rare snow by Wednesday, while the Alpine regions of SE Australia are all-but guaranteed heavy snow next week, with accumulations also expected across the lower-elevated regions of NSW, Victoria, and Tasmania.

The Blue Mountains, the Southern, Central, and Northern Tablelands of NSW, elevated parts of the ACT, parts of Victoria outside the Alps, Tasmania outside mountainous areas, and even the Granite Belt of southern Queensland will all likely experience snowfall.

Weatherzone meteorologist Felix Levesque sees flurries in the Tablelands as early as Sunday night, with increasing snow through Tuesday. The snow level could drop below 1,000 m (3,280 ft) midweek, with snow hitting the Barrington Tops NW of Newcastle.

Antarctic air will drive single-digit daily highs to large areas, and south-easterly winds will push this cold air mass across much of the country, prolonging the snowy outbreak through next week.

A high-pressure system following the cold front will then keep much of eastern Australia in a prolonged cold spell, with temperatures remaining well-below historical norms for some time.

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) July 15 – 18 [tropicaltidbits.com]


The NOAA HYSPLIT model output shows the backward trajectories of air masses ending on July 17, 2024.


The chart traces air masses from different altitudes (500 m, 1000 m, and 5000 m) back six days, revealing their origins over the Tasman Sea and New Zealand.

The model indicates a deep and high-amplitude airmass moving southeast to northeast, expected to deliver polar air mass as far north as SE Queensland, which would prove a notable event, possibly resulting in rare snows and record lows.


China Commissions New Icebreaker

China’s new polar research vessel, the Jidi (“Polar”), has been officially commissioned by the Ministry of Natural Resources, capable of breaking through one meter thick sea-ice. This advanced vessel is equipped with drones, unmanned ships, and underwater autonomous robots.

The Jidi, under construction since November 2022, was commissioned on July 5 after its journey from Nansha to Qingdao.

China’s investment in the icebreaker underscores its strategic interest in the Arctic, and also counters narratives that the region is melting away. Sea ice data shows a healthy ice presence, a trend of growth, necessitating robust icebreaking capabilities even during the summer months.

The Jidi’s ability to break through one-meter thick ice at a speed of 2 knots allows China to conduct summer operations in Arctic waters, supporting comprehensive observation and research of the atmosphere, sea ice, water bodies, and marine environments–so reads Beijing’s pitch at least. However, China’s expanding northern activities have raised concerns among Arctic nations, including the Nordic countries, Canada, and the U.S., who view China’s presence as a potential security threat.

Equipped with advanced marine survey technology, including a heavy-load fuel drone, the Jidi will indeed enhance China’s capacity to study the Arctic. This investment aligns with China’s self-designation as a near-Arctic state and its 2018 Arctic policy, which prioritizes climate research.


WHOI To Start Risky Ocean Geoengineering Experiment Next Month

Starting in August, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) will conduct a controversial study on ocean alkalinity enhancement by dumping 20 metric tonnes of sodium hydroxide (lye) and 75 kilograms of tracer dye into waters southwest of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard.

This experiment, called the “LOC-NESS” project, aims to raise ocean pH levels to combat acidification and enhance CO2 uptake, potentially reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide. But this approach ignores the significant risks posed to marine life.

Raising ocean pH can harm species that depend on stable CO2 levels, such as corals.

Environmental groups, including Friends of the Earth, have strongly criticized the project, comparing it to pouring 60,000 gallons of bleach into the ocean. They argue that the environmental risks are not justified, and criticize the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for permitting the experiment.

WHOI and the EPA claim that the study is safe and that the impacts will be minimal. They note that sodium hydroxide is commonly used in drinking water and baking and assert that it will not sink deeper than 10 m (33 ft). Despite these assurances, opponents are skeptical, warning that human interventions in natural systems often have unforeseen consequences.

This study represents a high-risk gamble with the health of marine ecosystems, with zero benefits. It exemplifies how likely well-intentioned academics can be misled by the simplistic narrative ‘CO2 = the boogeyman’, pursuing an idea that seems more like a high school hypothetical than sound scientific inquiry.

A visual representation of the field trial monitoring approach [WHOI].


Shifting Baseline Syndrome

Shifting baseline syndrome, first introduced by marine biologist Daniel Pauly in 1995, suggests that successive generations fail to recognize gradual environmental degradation because they perceive the conditions of their youth as normal.

Despite its lack of robust empirical evidence, the concept has becoming an increasingly popular tool for the AGW Party used to dismiss current anomalous cold events.

Critics like Judith Curry and Richard Lindzen argue that shifting baseline syndrome is more about manipulating public perception than providing a clear understanding of environmental changes.

Curry, a prominent climate scientist, has called it a convenient excuse for those who want to normalize extreme heat while dismissing local cooling trends and other forms of natural climate variability.

The latest MSM spiel states: “The burning of fossil fuels has pushed Earth’s temperature 1.5C higher than averages seen before industrialization, a shift we’ve experienced for over a year. Intriguingly, despite this global trend, some areas report unexpected cold.”

This cold, rather than even accepted as a part of natural variability, is now often attributed to shifting baseline syndrome.

For instance, residents in the UK are experiencing a notably cool summer, “which has led to increased climate skepticism,” reports devdiscourse.com (heaven forbid).

Matthew Patterson, an atmospheric physicist from the University of Reading, claims current UK temperatures have been close to historical averages. But pick your averages. June in England was -0.1C below the old and cold 1961-1990 era. And July, to the 9th, is tracking a substantial -1.9C below this era, and in turn is making for the 11th-coldest July in 359-years of record keeping, tied with the Julys of 1685, 1965, 1674, and 1713.

No, it isn’t the ‘shifting baseline syndrome’ making this summer feel cool—it has been cool, historically so, as per the data.

As always, real-world observations, like those in the UK, provide a more accurate picture than broad, generalized theories.

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