Rare August Chill To Bring Snow To The West; Frost Damage Across Argentina And Brazil; + Mann Called For A Record 33 Atlantic Hurricanes This Season – By Late August, We’re At 5
Rare August Chill To Bring Snow To The West; Frost Damage Across Argentina And Brazil; + Mann Called For A Record 33 Atlantic Hurricanes This Season – By Late August, We’re At 5
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32 Thoughts to “Rare August Chill To Bring Snow To The West; Frost Damage Across Argentina And Brazil; + Mann Called For A Record 33 Atlantic Hurricanes This Season – By Late August, We’re At 5”
What the failed prediction shows is that hurricanes are indeed generally predicted by the ocean surface temperature, which as noted, dropped dramatically this season. What would be even more useful is to be able to predict the ocean surface temperature.
The oceans are heated by one of two things: solar insolation, or water transported from somewhere else that was already heated by the sun.
Clearly the water temperature is not influenced by CO2 because there is a random chance CO2 predicts temperature. There is a reasonable chance temperature predicts CO2, I notice.
The best book to date on the deep ocean currents transporting heat is by Tim Ball. It is available as a free PDF, 35 MB.
The Atlantic Nina region is South of where the majority of hurricanes form so IMO isn’t a cause of the lack of hurricanes so far this year, SSTs in the areas most hurricanes form are still above the 30 year average.
A lot of hurricanes form from a cluster of thunder storms that move west from the African monsoon belt so a likely explanation for the lack of them could well be a weaker than average monsoon and/or weak upper level winds not blowing the storms out over the ocean before they disappate.
Thanks for all the fine work, Cap. I often repost your graphs but only if they are sourced. Would you add the source to all of them in the future? If you send me the source for the Nino/Nina graph, that would be great.
When they made the hurricane forecast the Atlantic was warmer than ave from solar flares. How many X and M class solar flares were there in the month of May? You can see the increase on the Electron chart in May and big spikes in June then early July and then a lull between planetary alignments. Makor planetary alignments caused the flares for the electron spikes and the warm Atlantic hurricane forecast. https://www.solen.info/solar/images/electronfluence.png
You can see the warm Atlantic on the SST Anoms 90 day animation, the heat shifts to the North Atlantic, the heat removed from the hurricanes that did happen but the heat was not replaced by new major solar flares. Lots of sunspots, not too many major flares with electron hits: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/animation/gif/ssta_animation_90day_large.gif
There was new snow on the Mt Bachelor Oregon ski area cam this morning from the Kamchatka volcano plume from solar flares. It’s raining here now Friday eve from the Kamchatka volcano from an X flare not from no solar flares GSM global cooling. Huge new SO2 plume from Iceland volcano headed for UK and EU will cause cooling there from solar flares not from no flares cosmic rays GSM global cooling. https://www.windy.com/-SO2-tcso2?tcso2,59.141,-9.239,4,i:pressure https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?
rainAccu,57.980,-0.221,5,i:pressure,m:fmGagjx
I had to turn the heater on a couple of times last week, but today it’s 100F on my front porch again, and likely to stay that way awhile.
Weather and climate are not the same thing. The weather is generally crappy, the climate is unstable. That’s about all we can know for sure.
Yep 90°F here in Metcalfe today. Thursday is supposed to be 96°F. Thing is these temps are normally Late July early August temps…🤪😠
Well if the Farmers Almanac is correct KY is going to be colder & snowier. Hope so!
Found that chart reading on Space Weather.com today about why solar activity could be strong for a few more years not getting quiet. Top article says Aug is new solar max sun not quiet solar min. Highest sunspot count in twenty years. https://www.spaceweather.com/ https://www.stce.be/content/sc25-tracking
The Tonga eruption was from a very small solar flare from alignments but almost nobody on the planet will ever know anything about it so let’s do everything we can to prevent that so they remain inert.
Between alignments the spots get fewer. it seems. After the polarities stabilize at the poles the alignments don’t make spots or flares during solar minimum, it’s really boring. It’s exciting to spot the alignments ahead of time to see what will happen. The polarities are not stabilizing at the poles now at all, not yet. https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/QR/bqG/202408/mrbqG240825/mrbqG240825t0014c2288_278.gif
Dear Cap. I have been a PATRON (Why Caps?) forever since you appealed for financial support last year maybe. I believe your product and work are critically important even if it only reaches a small portion of the unwashed and the washed masses. My stomach ache is that I have asked what I think is a simple request/question; how can I find some relatively straightforward photos/graphs, etc., on WTF has been going with the Earth’s sea level(s) for the last 100 years and the last 1000 years? Is it getting higher (increasing) or not? My purpose is to educate some local vociferous friends who only listen/watch/read the MST media. It is lonely out here at times being a Trump supporter but we have them surrounded, they just won’t know it for another almost 2.0 months. Billy B. in the Vancouver BC area.
You see the Facebook & Twitter buttons at the bottom of the article? I use them to tell the World the facts. AND that means more people become Patreon members of Cap’s and that means more & more & more people read, learn & sign up Learning the facts and helping Cap!
Hey Mandy … Mike from Metcalfe County KY here. Welcome and Deb from HIT Missouri is around here somewhere. What you learn here are things the ‘Powers to he’ don’t want you to know/learn. Enjoy!!!😁😎🇺🇸
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣👍
No my fat old fingers hit wrong buttons Deb. HOT in that where you live it’s been 🔥😶🌫️.
Anyway we closed the windows three nights ago cuz 49°F is kinda chilly. Now today 90°F…crap. It will be cold snowy again. God Day My Lady!🤪🤣🇺🇸😎
Sorry if I sound snippy, Mike. It’s getting to 100F here every day again, and I’ve been sick off and on for the last 2-3 weeks. Got some kind of bug, and every time I go to town, I have a relapse. Ever since covid, seems like the viruses have been atypical.
Maybe it’s better not to get too smug about the hurricane count. Watching Mark Vogan’s analysis of why this has o current, he points up the knock on effect of soaring ocean temperatures in the hurricane ‘cookpot’, which could see some serious contenders form in September and October.
Big cyclones form from big solar flares from big planetary alignments which more are on the schedule. New Moon on 9/2/24, also several big planetary alignments. Big planetary alignments on the 29th. What alignments of which planets? More big alignments through September get prepared now.
In September, the Earth’s tilt has the focus of the Sun more towards the Equator where the cyclones form. https://www.windy.com/-Menu/menu?solarpower,33.977,-29.186,3,i:pressure
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What the failed prediction shows is that hurricanes are indeed generally predicted by the ocean surface temperature, which as noted, dropped dramatically this season. What would be even more useful is to be able to predict the ocean surface temperature.
The oceans are heated by one of two things: solar insolation, or water transported from somewhere else that was already heated by the sun.
Clearly the water temperature is not influenced by CO2 because there is a random chance CO2 predicts temperature. There is a reasonable chance temperature predicts CO2, I notice.
The best book to date on the deep ocean currents transporting heat is by Tim Ball. It is available as a free PDF, 35 MB.
Underwater volcanic activity is also an unknown factor in heating the oceans.
And that Sun SOL. He cools down…we cool down
..simple.
TCI is now strongest since 2001, up in the warm zone: https://www.spaceweather.com/images2024/23aug24/TCI_Daily_NO_Power_Percentiles.png
Yes, see plateclimatogy.com seems to be a sound theory but does not fit left or right dogma
The Atlantic Nina region is South of where the majority of hurricanes form so IMO isn’t a cause of the lack of hurricanes so far this year, SSTs in the areas most hurricanes form are still above the 30 year average.
A lot of hurricanes form from a cluster of thunder storms that move west from the African monsoon belt so a likely explanation for the lack of them could well be a weaker than average monsoon and/or weak upper level winds not blowing the storms out over the ocean before they disappate.
Thanks for all the fine work, Cap. I often repost your graphs but only if they are sourced. Would you add the source to all of them in the future? If you send me the source for the Nino/Nina graph, that would be great.
Iceland volcano erupts from solar flares, SO2 went big Friday headed for UK, EU:
https://www.windy.com/-SO2-tcso2?tcso2,56.123,-12.721,4,i:pressure
E Pacific Hurricane formed from solar flares:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2024/hurricane-gilma
Tropical Storm from solar flares headed for Hawaii forecast cat one S of the Islands:
:https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/central-pacific/2024/tropical-storm-hone
Another Typhoon from solar flares headed for Japan:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2024/tropical-storm-shanshan
When they made the hurricane forecast the Atlantic was warmer than ave from solar flares. How many X and M class solar flares were there in the month of May? You can see the increase on the Electron chart in May and big spikes in June then early July and then a lull between planetary alignments. Makor planetary alignments caused the flares for the electron spikes and the warm Atlantic hurricane forecast.
https://www.solen.info/solar/images/electronfluence.png
You can see the warm Atlantic on the SST Anoms 90 day animation, the heat shifts to the North Atlantic, the heat removed from the hurricanes that did happen but the heat was not replaced by new major solar flares. Lots of sunspots, not too many major flares with electron hits:
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/animation/gif/ssta_animation_90day_large.gif
Sea temp in the Gulf of Mexico now is 87/88/89F waiting for a solar flare to get another hurricane going. There’s planetary alignment next week and a New Moon 9/2/24 which increases potential for major flares and cyclones.
https://www.windy.com/-Sea-temperature-sst?sst,24.017,-86.895,5,i:pressure,m:essadAt
58F and raining here today 8/23/24 NW US ave is 77F
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/eldon/98555/weather-today/2157602
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/eldon/98555/august-weather/2157602
19 degrees below ave here today from Kamchatka volcano plume from solar flares.
https://www.windy.com/-Menu/menu?tcso2,47.859,-123.707,7,i:pressure,m:eXBacGJ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4ZYJKVqYUI
https://solarham.com/pictures/2024/aug17_2024_sw2.jpg
There was new snow on the Mt Bachelor Oregon ski area cam this morning from the Kamchatka volcano plume from solar flares. It’s raining here now Friday eve from the Kamchatka volcano from an X flare not from no solar flares GSM global cooling. Huge new SO2 plume from Iceland volcano headed for UK and EU will cause cooling there from solar flares not from no flares cosmic rays GSM global cooling.
https://www.windy.com/-SO2-tcso2?tcso2,59.141,-9.239,4,i:pressure
https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?
rainAccu,57.980,-0.221,5,i:pressure,m:fmGagjx
We got down to 49°f three mornings ago here in Metcalfe County KY.
I see an ‘interesting’ Winter this year…time to put up 3 Cords of firewood!
Mike-
I had to turn the heater on a couple of times last week, but today it’s 100F on my front porch again, and likely to stay that way awhile.
Weather and climate are not the same thing. The weather is generally crappy, the climate is unstable. That’s about all we can know for sure.
Yep 90°F here in Metcalfe today. Thursday is supposed to be 96°F. Thing is these temps are normally Late July early August temps…🤪😠
Well if the Farmers Almanac is correct KY is going to be colder & snowier. Hope so!
Number of CMEs Chart SC23, 24 &25 shows increase:
https://www.stce.be/content/sc25-tracking
Found that chart reading on Space Weather.com today about why solar activity could be strong for a few more years not getting quiet. Top article says Aug is new solar max sun not quiet solar min. Highest sunspot count in twenty years.
https://www.spaceweather.com/
https://www.stce.be/content/sc25-tracking
Are the planetary alignments responsible for sunspots as well as solar flares?
I’m freaking out right now about alignments, especially the one that occurred in March ’23. I dunno, maybe it’s my imagination…or not…
The Tonga eruption was from a very small solar flare from alignments but almost nobody on the planet will ever know anything about it so let’s do everything we can to prevent that so they remain inert.
😄🤭
Between alignments the spots get fewer. it seems. After the polarities stabilize at the poles the alignments don’t make spots or flares during solar minimum, it’s really boring. It’s exciting to spot the alignments ahead of time to see what will happen. The polarities are not stabilizing at the poles now at all, not yet.
https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/QR/bqG/202408/mrbqG240825/mrbqG240825t0014c2288_278.gif
You can see the sunspots and polarities on this one and how they are connected:
https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/QR/bq4/202408/mrbq4240824/mrbq4240824t2304c2288_279.gif
This is the story of 26 men who rode the Arizona Territory:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYCYnT-duCg&list=PL5tZaY2YnAMkrN_vD5w7-CU5N0hrhZbIP&index=2
Dear Cap. I have been a PATRON (Why Caps?) forever since you appealed for financial support last year maybe. I believe your product and work are critically important even if it only reaches a small portion of the unwashed and the washed masses. My stomach ache is that I have asked what I think is a simple request/question; how can I find some relatively straightforward photos/graphs, etc., on WTF has been going with the Earth’s sea level(s) for the last 100 years and the last 1000 years? Is it getting higher (increasing) or not? My purpose is to educate some local vociferous friends who only listen/watch/read the MST media. It is lonely out here at times being a Trump supporter but we have them surrounded, they just won’t know it for another almost 2.0 months. Billy B. in the Vancouver BC area.
You see the Facebook & Twitter buttons at the bottom of the article? I use them to tell the World the facts. AND that means more people become Patreon members of Cap’s and that means more & more & more people read, learn & sign up Learning the facts and helping Cap!
Number of CMEs Chart SC23,24,25 shows increase:
https://www.stce.be/sites/default/files/field/image/Picture15_0.png
Thank you Cap!! My hubby and me read you first every weekday morning! Mandy in Michigan.
Hey Mandy … Mike from Metcalfe County KY here. Welcome and Deb from HIT Missouri is around here somewhere. What you learn here are things the ‘Powers to he’ don’t want you to know/learn. Enjoy!!!😁😎🇺🇸
Is HIT the same thing as BFE?
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣👍
No my fat old fingers hit wrong buttons Deb. HOT in that where you live it’s been 🔥😶🌫️.
Anyway we closed the windows three nights ago cuz 49°F is kinda chilly. Now today 90°F…crap. It will be cold snowy again. God Day My Lady!🤪🤣🇺🇸😎
Try using a pencil eraser, fer cryin’ out loud!
Sorry if I sound snippy, Mike. It’s getting to 100F here every day again, and I’ve been sick off and on for the last 2-3 weeks. Got some kind of bug, and every time I go to town, I have a relapse. Ever since covid, seems like the viruses have been atypical.
Maybe it’s better not to get too smug about the hurricane count. Watching Mark Vogan’s analysis of why this has o current, he points up the knock on effect of soaring ocean temperatures in the hurricane ‘cookpot’, which could see some serious contenders form in September and October.
Big cyclones form from big solar flares from big planetary alignments which more are on the schedule. New Moon on 9/2/24, also several big planetary alignments. Big planetary alignments on the 29th. What alignments of which planets? More big alignments through September get prepared now.
In September, the Earth’s tilt has the focus of the Sun more towards the Equator where the cyclones form.
https://www.windy.com/-Menu/menu?solarpower,33.977,-29.186,3,i:pressure
Hot in Spain all month over 100F most of the time, above ave., 104F today ten degrees above ave last year this day was 110F.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/es/c%C3%B3rdoba/306728/weather-today/306728
https://www.accuweather.com/en/es/c%C3%B3rdoba/306728/august-weather/306728
https://www.windy.com/-Menu/menu?fwi,38.652,-4.169,7,i:pressure,m:eL4afXb
As some have already mentioned, volcanic underwater fissures add heat to ocean waters.
How much, I don’t know. And of that heat, how much is transferred to the surface via vertical ocean currents, I don’t know.