Cool Italy; South America’s Extreme Temperature Drop; + El Niño Exaggerations

Cool Italy

Italy has been holding very cold in recent months, and wet — realities that render official AGW Party forecasts a joke.

May 2023 across Italy was another cool and rainy month, coming in with an average temperature anomaly of -0.14C below the multidecadal norm.

The Liguria Region was exceptionally wet, with areas –such as Emilia Romagna– posting their wettest Mays on record.

For more:

South America’s Extreme Temperature Drop

After a few weeks of anomalous warmth, South America is now suffering a swing of fortunes.

Frosts have been registered across the majority of Argentina, with temperatures also crashing hard in Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru.

Wednesday will see Brazil cop a true wintry blasting as that band of cold air pulls itself northwards and well into the tropics.

Already, the cold front has rolled over Paraná and São Paulo, Curitiba where it has delivered 48-hours of continuous rains and daily highs of barely 10C (50F). Similarly, an exceptionally cool max of 12.6C (54.7F) was posted in Puerto Maldonado, Peru.

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Weds, June 14 [].

Snow fell at Tarija in Bolivia on Tuesday, with daytime highs there also holding well-below 10C (50F), even on the plains.

Eyeing further ahead, another powerful Antarctic outbreak is currently expected to start making its way up the continent as the calendar nears July (in the unreliable time frame, but worth keeping an eye on):

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) June 28 – June 29 [].

El Niño Exaggerations

El Niños are driven by natural factors — even the AGW Party concede this.

A lot of MSM ink has been spent claiming that this newly developing El Niño will accelerate the impacts of ‘climate change’. However, each observation can be fully explained by natural forcings — the leap to ‘CO2 demonizing’ is not necessary, nor logical.

Even mainstream climate researchers are having a hard time slapping dire CAGW projections onto the recently observed trends.

Daniel Swain, climate scientist at UCLA, argued during via a Youtube question and answer session earlier this week that he didn’t believe “this current escalation is necessarily an indication that there’s any dramatic underestimation of the warming”, claiming this to be “two steps forward and one step back — that’s the natural variability, if you will…”

Additional specific natural factors giving climate scientists pause to think are listed below, including quotes…

La Niña

Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payments company Stripe, is keen to attribute much of of the warming to the transition out of the rare triple-dip La Niña cooling phase of the Pacific.

“In general, I think the level of excitement around recent sea surface temperature records in some quarters is a bit over the top,” Hausfather told Axios via email. “We don’t have any evidence that warming is accelerating beyond the range that scientists have previously predicted it would,” he said.

Sahara Dust

Hausfather’s view was shared by others, including –believe it or not– Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania.

Mann has also identified abnormally low levels of dust blowing from the Sahara Desert across the Atlantic, pointing to this being a key reason why parts of the tropical Atlantic are giving warm readings.

Dust transport can suppress Atlantic Ocean temperatures, points out Mann, which also makes the atmosphere less hospitable to tropical storms and hurricanes — a doubly whammy for the climate hawkers.

Azores High

An additional forcing driving sea surface temperatures higher is the Azores High, or, more accurately, a lack thereof.

The tweet below, courtesy of Brian McNoldy, senior Research Associate at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School, shows the High’s strength and position over the past two weeks and then the historical strength and position over the same period:

McNoldy: “The much weaker and displaced High reduces the trade winds over the tropical Atlantic and northern Africa, which in turn reduces the evaporational cooling of the water and reduces the transport of Saharan dust across the eastern tropical Atlantic.”

Wrap Up

Suffice it to say, El Niño, like its cold counterpart La Niña, is an entirely natural climatic phenomenon, and so, in turn, any impact it has on the climate must also be regarded ‘natural’.

Warming sea surface temperatures during El Niño are to be expected, just as cooling is during La Nina.

The fact that the AGW Party went on radio silence during these past three years, during the rare triple-drip La Niña –a setup that their doctrine claimed would be impossible by now, by the way– is very telling.

These warm-mongers have been sitting on their hands, waiting for the natural cooling pattern to wain. And now that it has, boy howdy are they making up for lost time, pouncing on this mere whiff of climatic warming and claiming it evidence of the end of times: “This is both worrying and scary,” is how UCL professor Mark Maslin recently –and brainlessly– put it on Twitter.

My own personal and long-held contention is that low solar activity (a Grand Solar Minimum) will drive Earth into its next bout of prolonged global cooling: its next ice age (little or otherwise).

Solar cycle 25, though historically weak, does look to have the edge over its predecessor, solar cycle 24. However, and as has also been my contention, publicly expressed since 2018, it will be solar cycle 26 where the real fun to begins.

I expect SC26 (starting ≈2029) to deliver a true ‘Dalton’ or even ‘Maunder’ Minimum-level drop off in the sun’s output, with global temperatures –having now expended their ocean inertia-driven lag throughout SC24 and SC25– dropping with it , as they always have and, one can only assume, always will.

Despite the unceasing CAGW rhetoric, I am bracing for cooling…

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