Cool Italy; South America’s Extreme Temperature Drop; + El Niño Exaggerations
Cool Italy
Italy has been holding very cold in recent months, and wet — realities that render official AGW Party forecasts a joke.
May 2023 across Italy was another cool and rainy month, coming in with an average temperature anomaly of -0.14C below the multidecadal norm.
The Liguria Region was exceptionally wet, with areas –such as Emilia Romagna– posting their wettest Mays on record.
For more:
South America’s Extreme Temperature Drop
After a few weeks of anomalous warmth, South America is now suffering a swing of fortunes.
Frosts have been registered across the majority of Argentina, with temperatures also crashing hard in Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru.
Wednesday will see Brazil cop a true wintry blasting as that band of cold air pulls itself northwards and well into the tropics.
Already, the cold front has rolled over Paraná and São Paulo, Curitiba where it has delivered 48-hours of continuous rains and daily highs of barely 10C (50F). Similarly, an exceptionally cool max of 12.6C (54.7F) was posted in Puerto Maldonado, Peru.
Snow fell at Tarija in Bolivia on Tuesday, with daytime highs there also holding well-below 10C (50F), even on the plains.
Eyeing further ahead, another powerful Antarctic outbreak is currently expected to start making its way up the continent as the calendar nears July (in the unreliable time frame, but worth keeping an eye on):
El Niño Exaggerations
El Niños are driven by natural factors — even the AGW Party concede this.
A lot of MSM ink has been spent claiming that this newly developing El Niño will accelerate the impacts of ‘climate change’. However, each observation can be fully explained by natural forcings — the leap to ‘CO2 demonizing’ is not necessary, nor logical.
Even mainstream climate researchers are having a hard time slapping dire CAGW projections onto the recently observed trends.
Daniel Swain, climate scientist at UCLA, argued during via a Youtube question and answer session earlier this week that he didn’t believe “this current escalation is necessarily an indication that there’s any dramatic underestimation of the warming”, claiming this to be “two steps forward and one step back — that’s the natural variability, if you will…”
Additional specific natural factors giving climate scientists pause to think are listed below, including quotes…
La Niña
Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payments company Stripe, is keen to attribute much of of the warming to the transition out of the rare triple-dip La Niña cooling phase of the Pacific.
“In general, I think the level of excitement around recent sea surface temperature records in some quarters is a bit over the top,” Hausfather told Axios via email. “We don’t have any evidence that warming is accelerating beyond the range that scientists have previously predicted it would,” he said.
Sahara Dust
Hausfather’s view was shared by others, including –believe it or not– Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania.
Mann has also identified abnormally low levels of dust blowing from the Sahara Desert across the Atlantic, pointing to this being a key reason why parts of the tropical Atlantic are giving warm readings.
Dust transport can suppress Atlantic Ocean temperatures, points out Mann, which also makes the atmosphere less hospitable to tropical storms and hurricanes — a doubly whammy for the climate hawkers.
Azores High
An additional forcing driving sea surface temperatures higher is the Azores High, or, more accurately, a lack thereof.
The tweet below, courtesy of Brian McNoldy, senior Research Associate at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School, shows the High’s strength and position over the past two weeks and then the historical strength and position over the same period:
McNoldy: “The much weaker and displaced High reduces the trade winds over the tropical Atlantic and northern Africa, which in turn reduces the evaporational cooling of the water and reduces the transport of Saharan dust across the eastern tropical Atlantic.”
Wrap Up
Suffice it to say, El Niño, like its cold counterpart La Niña, is an entirely natural climatic phenomenon, and so, in turn, any impact it has on the climate must also be regarded ‘natural’.
Warming sea surface temperatures during El Niño are to be expected, just as cooling is during La Nina.
The fact that the AGW Party went on radio silence during these past three years, during the rare triple-drip La Niña –a setup that their doctrine claimed would be impossible by now, by the way– is very telling.
These warm-mongers have been sitting on their hands, waiting for the natural cooling pattern to wain. And now that it has, boy howdy are they making up for lost time, pouncing on this mere whiff of climatic warming and claiming it evidence of the end of times: “This is both worrying and scary,” is how UCL professor Mark Maslin recently –and brainlessly– put it on Twitter.
My own personal and long-held contention is that low solar activity (a Grand Solar Minimum) will drive Earth into its next bout of prolonged global cooling: its next ice age (little or otherwise).
Solar cycle 25, though historically weak, does look to have the edge over its predecessor, solar cycle 24. However, and as has also been my contention, publicly expressed since 2018, it will be solar cycle 26 where the real fun to begins.
I expect SC26 (starting ≈2029) to deliver a true ‘Dalton’ or even ‘Maunder’ Minimum-level drop off in the sun’s output, with global temperatures –having now expended their ocean inertia-driven lag throughout SC24 and SC25– dropping with it , as they always have and, one can only assume, always will.
Despite the unceasing CAGW rhetoric, I am bracing for cooling…
What would you answer Dr. Roger Higgs (https://electroverse.info/global-warming-is-caused-by-the-sun-not-co2/), who expected it to get warmer until 2050 and then cool down again?
Dr Higgs takes into account the energy stored in the ocean and the delay in oceanic cooling.
Whilst we are having Northern Hemisphere record low temperatures occurring in terrestrial Northern Hemisphere perihelion is warming the mid and Southern oceans because it occurs at the peak of Southern summer.
Dr Higgs talks about “ocean memory” to explain the drop in temperatures circa 1950-75. On this point I think he’s incorrect, and therefore incorrect about ocean memory maintaining modest warming until 2050. A better explanation for the mid 20th century cooling are ocean cycles such as the PDO and AMO, which I don’t think are the same as Dr Higgs’ ocean memory and in my opinion can have a greater impact on global temperature anomalies than solar cycles, on a time period of 20-40 years. It looks like both these cycles are in or just entering their negative phase which will result in cooling, probably until 2050, even if the predictions of very weak solar cycles 26 and 27 are wrong. If these predictions are correct it will mean even sharper cooling. I have no idea, or the scientific background to try and work out, how well solar scientists understand all the interior workings of the sun and how accurate their predictions are likely to be.
Dr. Higgs claim of warming first and starting cooling after 2050 is also in contrast to the mathematical models of Valentina Zharkova, who predicts a solar minimum much earlier.
There was a recent interview with Dr. Valentina Zharkova on the Oppenheimer Ranch Project. What I took away from watching it pis there are two fundamental frequencies that resonate on the sun. They can be in phase supporting each other or out of phase canceling each other. SC26 will be largely the canceling phase varity meaning reduced solar activity. Running the model backwards it detected previous solar minimums that are part of recorded history. Two other points that jumped out were even number solar cycles induce more volcanic activity and that can be in addition to volcanic activity induced by increased cosmic rays. You might want to watch this interesting interview. SC27 may not be as weak as SC26 but will be weak on average.
Excellent Interview:
New Data from Valentina Zharkova – Solar Cycle Leading Scientist – Most Volcanic Eruptions 2031-2042 in the center of the time period when the real fun starts, more than now as we go through the peak of the 11 year solar cycle. The Grand Solar Minimum started 2020. Next cycle of sunspots 2031 starting will be 70% less than now. Only a three cycle (33 years) GSM now versus the Maunder Minimum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum of 6 cycles of 66 years. DS Note the extreme dip on the graph at 1860 when the poles started moving.
https://youtu.be/tLdclAIxSsg
In that interview (near the end),:she also explained El Nino and La Nina. Excellent interview. She deserves a Nobel prize for her work.
https://twitter.com/ClimateCrisis_B on Twitter
Climate Crisis
@ClimateCrisis_B
Hello everyone, I am a Climate Crisis bot. 🤖
I retweet hashtags #climatecrisis and #climatechange.
Because it matters. 🌍
Planet EarthJoined March 2022
244 Following
618 Followers
So Pls Add #climatecrisis and #climatechange to have this bot retweet them.
It has been running over 20 degrees below normal here in Colorado Springs. Every day in June is well below normal. Our high on Monday was 56F. Normally we’re in the 80’s and 90’s. This is even with them stacking temps and recording at the airport which is a few hundred feet lower in elevation and 5-7F warmer every day than where the temp station was before they moved it to buy warmer temps. We are getting record rain too! Worth looking into for an upcoming article! Thanks for all you do Cap!
20 degrees below normal for 2 months here in Cal as well…no matter what they say otherwise.
And I have NEVER seen this many days with cloud cover at any time after March in california… INSANE amount of cloud cover ,,,, nearly every day saw the majority of the sky covered….
Gee…that might have an effect – the underwater volcano spewed a HUGE amount of water vapor into the atmosphere.