Early Snows The Alps; Siberian Snow Cover Expands, More Incoming; U.S. Hot Days Down; Sea Ice Recovery At Both Poles; + New Paper: Modern Warming Is Nothing New
Early Snows The Alps; Siberian Snow Cover Expands, More Incoming; U.S. Hot Days Down; Sea Ice Recovery At Both Poles; + New Paper: Modern Warming Is Nothing New
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6 Thoughts to “Early Snows The Alps; Siberian Snow Cover Expands, More Incoming; U.S. Hot Days Down; Sea Ice Recovery At Both Poles; + New Paper: Modern Warming Is Nothing New”
Hello, I’m new to the website which I’ve found very interesting. I’m just starting to look at data and found from the uah satellite record and backing it up with the remss data that at most the earths temp is around 0.3c – 0.7c above average, peaking recently to the 1c mark which maybe to do with the hunga Tonga eruption. Past interglacial periods most notably the last one, the eamian 134k years ago was anything from 2c to 5c above average. Am I getting average points mixed up or something? it just seems scarily obvious that we are being lied to. I’ve only just started to look at all this so please let me know if Iam totally wrong and have my averages wrong somehow.
Regards Matthew
The UAH satellite data set is by far the most reliable, those from NOAA, NASA and the Met Office are badly affected by the urban heat island effect, most of the weather stations used are in heavily built up areas or busy airports, and have been adjusted numerous times. Each time there’s an adjustment the early part of the data set gets a bit cooler and the past couple of decades a bit warmer.
Given how often the data is tweaked and how few weather stations there were 70 years ago it’s pointless to try and say what the global average temperature was in the late 19th century to the nearest 0.1 degree, it can probably be estimated to the nearest degree. Therefore it’s only possible to say how much temperatures have risen in the last 100 years to the nearest degree, or to put it another way it’s highly likely they’ve risen by 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius.
Given that glacial and interglacial cycles are affected by orbital shifts that happen over 10,000s years I don’t think there’s much to be gained from comparing this interglacial to previous ones. When considering changes in climate on a time scale of decades, or a human lifetime, the Earth’s orbital patterns can probably be assumed to remain constant.
There’s a chance that the orbits and hence the gravitational pull of Jupiter and Saturn could result in the Earth being slightly further away from the sun and therefore receiving slightly less incoming solar radiation. The science behind this is probably far from settled and the effects on climate will probably be pretty small so Imo it’s best ignored.
RE the orbital geometry, the Milankovitch Cycles. Yes, the timescales are quite lengthy, it would be nonetheless interesting to have an idea of which cycles have been trending slightly positive or negative over the last few centuries…and I guess the same going forward. And if any tend to cancel each other out, so to speak.
Hi Matthew.
It is important to be cognizant that the beginning of the satellite UAH global temperature record in the 1970s correlates with the time scientists were warning Earth was cooling towards a new ice age.
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Hello, I’m new to the website which I’ve found very interesting. I’m just starting to look at data and found from the uah satellite record and backing it up with the remss data that at most the earths temp is around 0.3c – 0.7c above average, peaking recently to the 1c mark which maybe to do with the hunga Tonga eruption. Past interglacial periods most notably the last one, the eamian 134k years ago was anything from 2c to 5c above average. Am I getting average points mixed up or something? it just seems scarily obvious that we are being lied to. I’ve only just started to look at all this so please let me know if Iam totally wrong and have my averages wrong somehow.
Regards Matthew
The UAH satellite data set is by far the most reliable, those from NOAA, NASA and the Met Office are badly affected by the urban heat island effect, most of the weather stations used are in heavily built up areas or busy airports, and have been adjusted numerous times. Each time there’s an adjustment the early part of the data set gets a bit cooler and the past couple of decades a bit warmer.
Given how often the data is tweaked and how few weather stations there were 70 years ago it’s pointless to try and say what the global average temperature was in the late 19th century to the nearest 0.1 degree, it can probably be estimated to the nearest degree. Therefore it’s only possible to say how much temperatures have risen in the last 100 years to the nearest degree, or to put it another way it’s highly likely they’ve risen by 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius.
Given that glacial and interglacial cycles are affected by orbital shifts that happen over 10,000s years I don’t think there’s much to be gained from comparing this interglacial to previous ones. When considering changes in climate on a time scale of decades, or a human lifetime, the Earth’s orbital patterns can probably be assumed to remain constant.
There’s a chance that the orbits and hence the gravitational pull of Jupiter and Saturn could result in the Earth being slightly further away from the sun and therefore receiving slightly less incoming solar radiation. The science behind this is probably far from settled and the effects on climate will probably be pretty small so Imo it’s best ignored.
RE the orbital geometry, the Milankovitch Cycles. Yes, the timescales are quite lengthy, it would be nonetheless interesting to have an idea of which cycles have been trending slightly positive or negative over the last few centuries…and I guess the same going forward. And if any tend to cancel each other out, so to speak.
Hi Matthew.
It is important to be cognizant that the beginning of the satellite UAH global temperature record in the 1970s correlates with the time scientists were warning Earth was cooling towards a new ice age.
Not only in the Alps, but even Russia had huge snowfalls on Sept. 20th:
This afternoon: Severe snowfall has blanketed the highlands, leaving dozens of sheep and their shepherds stranded in summer pastures. They are waiting for the weather to improve.
Location: Kedi village, Tsumadinsky district, Dagestan, Russia.
https://x.com/WeatherMonitors/status/1969437100782338367?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1969437100782338367%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
Right ok, great thanks for the feedback guys, interesting