Powerful Arctic Blast To Grip North America; “Big Cold Blast” And Spring Snow For Australia And New Zealand; + 25 Sunspots

Powerful Arctic Blast To Grip North America

The models are gaining confidence: an Arctic blast is inbound, one on course to deliver freezing lows as far south as Texas and the first shot of Lake Effect snow to the Great Lakes.

Records will fall.

The cold is already building in the far north.

A low of -26.2C (-15.2F) was posted by Beaver Creek, YT this morning — the Yukon’s lowest temperature of the season. The following morning dipped even lower, with -27.9C (-18.2F) endured in Margaret Lake (close to the Alaskan border).

As we near the weekend, a buckling jet will send cold polar air crashing through Canada and into the Lower 48.

Central states will prove something of a battleground this weekend –blues vs reds– but by Sunday the polar air mass should have won out and continue its descension south soon after, sweeping the likes of Texas by Monday and the Southeast by Wednesday.

These are exceptional lows that are inbound, as much as 25C below the seasonal norm and across a vast portion of the U.S., too.

“Ready or Not, Here it Comes,” reads the title of a recent ktvh.com article, which, focusing on Montana, warns of “a major snowstorm with record cold … overnight lows could drop below zero (F) by late this week.”

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Oct 24 – Nov 2 [tropicaltidbits.com].

The incoming snow totals look equally impressive.

Parts of Montana are forecast more than a foot; as a result, winter storm watches and warnings are in place.

The West, in particular, is readying for a Halloween pounding, which will no doubt bring back unwanted hauntings of last winter’s historic ordeal.

The first shot of lake effect snow is also preparing to clip the Great Lakes.

While in the Sierra Nevada, following the record-smashing snowfall of last season, the region is bracing for an early start on the snow this time round. Two strong cold fronts are due to hit the Bay Area, dropping serious dumpings in the Lake Tahoe area.

GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Oct 24 – Nov 9 [tropicaltidbits.com].
GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Oct 24 – Nov 9 [tropicaltidbits.com].

The calendar may still read October but winter is upon us.

Let’s keep score: Arctic Outbreak #1

And note also the fresh pounding Greenland is due to receive which will add to the historic SMB gains posted late last week:

“Big Cold Blast” And Spring Snow For Australia And New Zealand

“An incoming wintry blast” will hit NZ’s South Island and a swath of Australia this week, reports weatherwatch.co.nz.

Australia will turn ‘blue’ starting Wednesday (Oct 25), with New Zealand’s “cold change” forecast to set in Thursday and Friday.

From Tasmania through South Australia and into Victoria, Australia will endure a proper late-season chill:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Oct 25 – Oct 27 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Spring snow is likely across the alpine regions.

According to the GFS, a fresh 40 to 50 cm (16 to 20 inches) will accumulate atop New Zealand mountain ranges, with similar totals dropping on Tasmania’s peaks:

25 Sunspots

Over the past few months, solar activity has quietened. While over the past few weeks, sunspot counts have dropped further still leaving the solar disk almost blank.

Quiet Sun. The two sunspot groups that are there have simple magnetic fields that pose no threat for strong flares [SDO/HMI]

‘Sunspot lulls’ are normal statistical fluctuations even during strong cycles, and Solar Cycle 25 will bounce back at some point.

But still, the lowly 25 sunspots that currently pepper the Earth-facing solar disk (Oct 24) is the lowest count since the 23 of April 2.

Some contend that the peak of Solar Cycle 25 is already in.

I’m on the fence.

But this hush is compelling.

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