Prof. Nils-Axel Mörner: “The Approaching Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Conditions”

Cap Allon

[A recap article today due to family reasons. This was originally published on electroverse.net on Sept 6, 2020.]

Nils-Axel Mörner is the former head of the paleogeophysics and geodynamics department at Stockholm University. He retired in 2005 and since has dedicated his days to disproving the IPPC’s thermageddon nonsense while also warning of a coming Grand Solar Minimum.

Between 1997-2003, Mörner chaired an INTAS project on Geomagnetism & Climate — a project concluding that by the middle of the 21st century the Sun would be in a new solar minimum and Little Ice Age climatic conditions would prevail on Earth.

These conclusions were quite straightforward, writes Mörner, and were included in a Special Issue of PRP:

“Obviously we are on our way into a new grand solar minimum. This sheds serious doubts on the issue of a continued, even accelerated, warming as proposed by the IPCC project.”

This quite innocent, logically and honest account made the publisher take the remarkable step of closing down the entire scientific journal. This censorship gave rise to turbulence and objections within the scientific community, but it didn’t stop Mörner, who kept publishing scientific works regarding the impending GSM.

In 2015, Mörner’s “The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions” was published. The paper suggests that by 2030-2040 the Sun will experience a new grand solar minimum.

This is evident from multiple studies of quite different characteristics, writes Mörner:

“The phasing of sunspot cycles, the cyclic observations of North Atlantic behavior over the past millennium, the cyclic pattern of cosmogenic radionuclides in natural terrestrial archives, the motions of the Sun with respect to the center of mass, the planetary spin-orbit coupling, the planetary conjunction history, and the general planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction.”

During the previous grand solar minima—i.e. the Spörer Mini-mum (ca 1440-1460), the Maunder Minimum (ca 1687-1703) and the Dalton Minimum (ca 1809- 1821)—the climatic conditions deteriorated into Little Ice Age periods.


Salvador presented a mathematical model of the sunspot cycles based on Wilson’s tidal-torque model–above.

Salvador’s model had an 85% correlation with the sunspot numbers observed for 1749-2013, and made “a reasonable representation of the sunspot cycles for the past 1000 yr.”

Therefore, it justified an extrapolation for the next century:


The prediction gives an extended low up to 2160 with the lowest values reached within the period 2028-2042; i.e. just where we expect the New Grand Solar Minimum to occur.

In 2015, Salvador extended his analysis over the last 4000 years, comparing his model with the observed 10Be variations:


The phasing of the solar cycles gives a clear message for the middle of the century: there will be a New Grand Solar Minimum. The same message is seen when we consider the cyclic relations between Earth’s rotation, ocean circulation, and Arctic climate, too.

During the last three grand solar minima—the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minima—global climate experienced Little Ice Age conditions. Arctic water penetrated to the south all the way down to Mid Portugal, and Europe experienced severe climatic conditions. The Arctic ice cover expanded significantly.


“We now seem to be in possession of quite convergent data indicating that we, by 2030-2040, will be in a New Grand Solar Minimum which, by analogy to past minima, must be assumed will lead to a significant climatic deterioration with ice expansion in the Arctic.”

The mathematical model by Salvador seems to provide an excellent tool for the prediction of future sunspot variations.

All this precludes a continual warming as claimed by the IPCC. Instead of this, concludes Mörner, we are likely to face a new Little Ice Age.

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