Most realists are familiar with ‘hide the decline’ — the divergence problem in which post-1960 tree ring proxy data shows a clear temperature decline while official measured temperature data show a rise (i.e. ‘Climategate’).
Below are 5 series of calculated Asian tree ring data (1850-2000).
Over recent years, and with the help of some good’ol tweaking and manipulation, the series materializes an impossible-looking ‘closing blade’ during its final 50 years (1950-2000), going from a decline (Briffa 2001) to a “catastrophic” rise (PAGES2019):
As explained by Stephen McIntyre, with the help of @detgodehab….
The first graph is the original Briffa 2001 Asian series and shows a clear late 20th century decline; the second graph is the average of the Asian series in gridded MXD, sent by Briffa/Osborn to Rutherford and Mann, which then received Mann’s ‘input’ in 2008;
The third graph is the average of the (45) gridded MXD data as used in ‘Mann 2008’, and shows that Mann chopped off the offending/inconvenient declines and replaced them with some ostensible temperature data; while the fourth graph is PAGES2K (2013), which introduced a novel Asia reconstruction (Cook et al) from tree rings in which late that 20th century decline originally observed in Schweingruber data now does not exist. Closing values were similar to high values at mid-20th century. The difference was not reconciled by PAGES2K;
The final fifth graph is the most up to date PAGES reconstruction, i.e. the “Woke Reconstruction” as used in IPCC AR6. Contained in it is a subset of the PAGES2K Asia dset, the average of which yields what the AGW Party were likely seeking all along: a monster closing blade, an alarming ‘hockey stick’ of a temperature increase which they can use to forward their CO2-demonizing agenda.
“The decline is now in the Woke rear-view mirror,” writes McIntyre.
McIntyre asked two lead authors of PAGES2019 about the provenance of the Asian tree ring series, “but got nowhere.” They didn’t consider that they had any responsibility as lead authors of a Nature article to answer questions about their data.
Still, @detodehab was intrigued with the puzzling Asian tree ring chronologies and worked to reverse engineer their calculation, replicating the results to every detail. It’s hard for a statistical methodology to be so bad as to be wrong, but Mann’s methodology was one seemingly unique example: “It’s worse than anyone can imagine,” writes McIntyre.
Note, not ALL of the Asia chronologies are pathological, but the biggest blades most certainly are.
The ‘paki033’ chronology, one component of the Asia series, has 20 total iterations.
Looking at its evolution, it opens as nondescript series (V1) but then closes with a massive blade (V20) — and version 20 is where the iterations stop, with the creators seemingly now content with the results.
Below is a breakdown of the evolution of the data:
So how did they achieve such a stark rise?
“What happened to individual cores?” asks McIntyre. It all looked “very suspicious as a procedure.”
An obvious suspicion was that the monster blades were some sort of artefact, as opposed to being caused naturally by the climate.
As a test, McIntyre asked @detgodehab to see what happens when the last the 50 years of data was not used.
The findings justified the suspicion.
Excluding the last 50 years, paki033 produced a similarly big blade–just 50 years earlier:
For good measure, @detgodehab did a separate test excluding 25 years, and got the same big blade–just 25 years earlier:
So, at least with this chronology, it is very clear that the big blade being produced is bogus; man-made; an artefact of methodology and NOT in any way linked to climatic changes.
PAGES 2019, that most recent official iteration of global temperatures from 1850 (shown again below), irrefutably selects the worst and most bogus chronologies (claiming they were the best) and tricks the trusting reader, the purblind politician, the narrative-peddling reporter, and the meaning-seeking alarmist alike into thinking global temperatures have fired upwards in an unprecedented fashion.
This all matters greatly, of course.
The ENTIRE ‘climate crisis’ discourse is based on these fabricated findings — they are in IPCC reports, they are propagandized to the masses via the legacy media, and they are held up by supposedly educated ‘educators’ in schools and universities as definitive proof that “you kids are a cancer on the planet.”
Know, the increasingly extreme CO2-capping policies that our compromised politicians are hellbent on pushing are solely responsible for the plunge in living standards; and realize, the establishment are frantically blaming every Tom, Dick and Putin for this collapse when it is clear to all those whose eyes are their own that this is a fully intended and long-planned ‘controlled demolition’ of humanity’s hard-earned prosperity, prosperity chained to our access to cheap and reliable energy.
See the graph below … it is the only climatic dataset you need bother yourself with.
‘Perspective’ however does not forward totalitarian regimes quite as well as fantastical campfire tellings of the end of days.
For more from Stephen McIntyre, see his website climateaudit.org.