Record Cold Across Central Europe; New Zealand’s Bumper Snow Season; U.S. Rainfall Flat Since 1970; + Freezing The Air: Georgia Tech’s Absurd War On CO2
Record Cold Across Central Europe; New Zealand’s Bumper Snow Season; U.S. Rainfall Flat Since 1970; + Freezing The Air: Georgia Tech’s Absurd War On CO2
Already a qualifying Patreon member? Refresh to access this content.
4 Thoughts to “Record Cold Across Central Europe; New Zealand’s Bumper Snow Season; U.S. Rainfall Flat Since 1970; + Freezing The Air: Georgia Tech’s Absurd War On CO2”
I saw a comment from yesterday that warranted a response. I am the engineer who posted yesterday, and the question had to do with why there was no effective warning in the flooding disaster in central Texas.. Several factors contributed including the following.
1. Initial warnings were typical for the area and they were taken to mean that the areas that were more prone to flooding would likely flood including some low water crossings. This would not have indicated that camps and rv parks that did not typically flood, or may have never flooded, needed to be evacuated.
2. The weather service recognized in the early morning hours that the intensity and quantity of rainfall was much higher than had initially been predicted and upped the warning to an emergency. Even if that warning was received it very likely would not have resulted in evacuation of areas that had not previously flooded in the last 90-100 years. In fact, children in camps were not generally allowed to have phones and phone coverage is very spotty in the low areas of the hill country. Most of the victims were not aware of the flood until it actually entered their cabins or RV’s. Some awakened to their building actually being moved downstream.
3. A fireman in Hunt called for the dispatcher to issue a red alert at about 3:20 a.,m. However, the dispatcher said she had to get approval of a supervisor, and apparently that warning did not go out until 6 a.m., much too late.
I think there will be a state and regional response that will construct siren warnings throughout at least the Guadalupe River basin. This has become the deadliest river basin for flooding. Likely the effort will include some of the other river basins in central Texas but there was even significant flooding in San Angelo in West Texas from the same system.
I also suspect that AI can be used to factor rainfall events regarding intensity, location, and quantity and coupled with input from river flood gauges can provide earlier predictions of flooding sufficient to at least trigger early warnings to allow people to save their lives by moving to higher ground. In at least one case a husband and wife started their truck, it failed, then got in another truck with another camper, and it failed, before then being swept away with the wife being lost. I suspect they could have made it to higher ground if they had started that direction immediately rather than spending time on vehicles.
I apologize for the long post. Having dealt with hydrology for 50+ years I think this storm was likely a 1000 year storm. The question, now, since it has occurred, is will this now become the new revised 100 year storm event. If so, this would mean that all designs and flood plains would require adjustment and existing drainage structures would now be considered grossly under-designed. Or will it be considered as the Probable Maximum Storm event that normally only requires things such as the ability for a dam to pass that even in an emergency spillway?
Thank you for your detailed reply. But AI and sirens can’t help with someone who wants to boot the responsibility upstairs. Human error is increasing because the human race is being dumbed down. I suppose that will be one of the excuses for AI to take over.
Texas is a monsoon rain forest where the trees have been cut down and cities built.
Isn’t it normal for heavy monsoon rains to occur in a rainforest?:
Before European settlement in the early 1600s, forests covered an estimated 1.023 billion acres of what is now the United States. The eastern portion of the country was heavily forested, while the Great Plains and western regions contained vast expanses of grasslands and shrubs.
Today, the U.S. has an estimated 765 million acres of forest land, covering about 33 percent of the country’s total land area. https://www.newsweek.com/america-forests-change-over-time-2041291
“You have come to a world without hate, without fear, without conflict, no war, no disease, no crime. None of the ancient evils. Landru seeks tranquility, peace for all, the universal good.
You will be absorbed. Your individuality will merge into the unity of good, and in your submergence into the common being of the body, you will find contentment, fulfillment. You will experience the absolute good.” I am Landru
Unlock with Patreon
I saw a comment from yesterday that warranted a response. I am the engineer who posted yesterday, and the question had to do with why there was no effective warning in the flooding disaster in central Texas.. Several factors contributed including the following.
1. Initial warnings were typical for the area and they were taken to mean that the areas that were more prone to flooding would likely flood including some low water crossings. This would not have indicated that camps and rv parks that did not typically flood, or may have never flooded, needed to be evacuated.
2. The weather service recognized in the early morning hours that the intensity and quantity of rainfall was much higher than had initially been predicted and upped the warning to an emergency. Even if that warning was received it very likely would not have resulted in evacuation of areas that had not previously flooded in the last 90-100 years. In fact, children in camps were not generally allowed to have phones and phone coverage is very spotty in the low areas of the hill country. Most of the victims were not aware of the flood until it actually entered their cabins or RV’s. Some awakened to their building actually being moved downstream.
3. A fireman in Hunt called for the dispatcher to issue a red alert at about 3:20 a.,m. However, the dispatcher said she had to get approval of a supervisor, and apparently that warning did not go out until 6 a.m., much too late.
I think there will be a state and regional response that will construct siren warnings throughout at least the Guadalupe River basin. This has become the deadliest river basin for flooding. Likely the effort will include some of the other river basins in central Texas but there was even significant flooding in San Angelo in West Texas from the same system.
I also suspect that AI can be used to factor rainfall events regarding intensity, location, and quantity and coupled with input from river flood gauges can provide earlier predictions of flooding sufficient to at least trigger early warnings to allow people to save their lives by moving to higher ground. In at least one case a husband and wife started their truck, it failed, then got in another truck with another camper, and it failed, before then being swept away with the wife being lost. I suspect they could have made it to higher ground if they had started that direction immediately rather than spending time on vehicles.
I apologize for the long post. Having dealt with hydrology for 50+ years I think this storm was likely a 1000 year storm. The question, now, since it has occurred, is will this now become the new revised 100 year storm event. If so, this would mean that all designs and flood plains would require adjustment and existing drainage structures would now be considered grossly under-designed. Or will it be considered as the Probable Maximum Storm event that normally only requires things such as the ability for a dam to pass that even in an emergency spillway?
Thank you for your detailed reply. But AI and sirens can’t help with someone who wants to boot the responsibility upstairs. Human error is increasing because the human race is being dumbed down. I suppose that will be one of the excuses for AI to take over.
Texas is a monsoon rain forest where the trees have been cut down and cities built.
Isn’t it normal for heavy monsoon rains to occur in a rainforest?:
Before European settlement in the early 1600s, forests covered an estimated 1.023 billion acres of what is now the United States. The eastern portion of the country was heavily forested, while the Great Plains and western regions contained vast expanses of grasslands and shrubs.
Today, the U.S. has an estimated 765 million acres of forest land, covering about 33 percent of the country’s total land area.
https://www.newsweek.com/america-forests-change-over-time-2041291
We will have this
“You have come to a world without hate, without fear, without conflict, no war, no disease, no crime. None of the ancient evils. Landru seeks tranquility, peace for all, the universal good.
You will be absorbed. Your individuality will merge into the unity of good, and in your submergence into the common being of the body, you will find contentment, fulfillment. You will experience the absolute good.” I am Landru