Early-Season Snow Hits Bhaderwah; Proper Polar Plunge To Pound U.S.; Another Embarrassing Activist-Study Achieves Publication; + Lowest Sunspot Number In More Than 6-Months

Early-Season Snow In Bhaderwah

Of late, Northern India has been impacted by winter-like lows and record-breaking snows.

Across the state of Shimla, the earliest snowfall ever recorded clipped the state capital Narkanda and also Hatu Peak earlier in the week. With 10 cm (4 inches) clipping Shikari Devi, breaking a 40-year-old record there.

To close out the week, heavy early snows are persisting, brightening the tourism prospects across the likes of Bhaderwah.

“This snowfall is an unexpected bonus and first time experience for us,” said one tourist.

“I can not believe my luck that in reality I am in the middle of snow, that too in the month of October,” said another.

Imran, a local vendor selling tea at Guldanda, said the early snowfall is proving a boon.

“We were about to wind up our makeshift shops as from October very few people visit here but the snowfall resulted in sudden and unexpected rush of visitors making us again busy attending visitors. Hopefully, there will be good snowfall this winter to sustain winter tourism,” he said.


India is cooling, according to the data.

A recent study by IITM showed ‘cold waves’ have increased over the past decade: “On average, these regions used to record 2-to-5 cold wave days per 10 years during most decades from 1951-2011, but this rose to nearly 5-15 days in the last decade (ending 2021).”

Proper Polar Plunge To Pound U.S.

“A shocking change in the weather is ahead,” warn AccuWeather meteorologists.

A temperature crash to as much as 25C below the multidecadal average is on the cards for vast areas of the U.S. (and Canada) next week, which will lead to the West’s first disruptive and widespread snowfall of the season.

The first hints of the polar plunge are actually arriving today (Fri, Oct 20) in the Northern California. The system us then forecast to traverse the rest of the interior West and Southwest over the weekend before biting proper next week.

“Temperatures will start to come down on Friday as the high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere weakens,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Heather Zehr.

“This will be most noticeable along the coast, due to the wind shifting to come in off the chilly ocean … Temperatures across Central/Southern California much of next week can run 5 to 10F below historical averages,” added Zehr.

“The storm coming ashore may bring snow to the highest elevations of the Oregon Cascades on Sunday. By Monday, freezing levels will fall in the Sierra Nevada and Southern California mountains … leading to snow.”

Next week–as touched on above–could be where the real fun and games begin.

On Monday and Tuesday, the mountains of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming are forecast substantial settling snow.

But come Wednesday, a more widespread and intense Arctic Outbreak is set to unfold, one that could stretch coast-to-coast and drop the mercury by as much as 25C below the 1981-2010 climatological average.

Latest GFS runs currently have this barreling in starting Wed, Oct 25:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Oct 25 – Nov 3 [tropicaltidbits.com].
Total Snowfall (inches) Oct 20 – Nov 5 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Here’s a zoomed-in look at the CONUS (click to enlarge):

Sioux Falls, SD is one city preparing for another long, cold and snowy winter, similar to 2022-23s.

Dakota News Now reports that the Public Works Administration will be hosting a one-day hiring event on Tuesday, October 31 with the hope of drafting in more “snow fighters” to the clearing team.

Sioux Falls likes to staff 25-30 seasonal employees with CDL licenses in case of major snow events and is offering $20.60 an hour to snow plow drivers.

That wage will “likely go up in the next two weeks,” said Dustin Hasen, of the Sioux Falls Public Works Administration, as the City attempts to attract in more help following calls for a repeat of last year’s historic, record-breaking and disruptive snow season.

Another Embarrassing Activist-Study Achieves Publication

A new paper in Nature claims to have identified a trend in hurricane intensification. The study is receiving quite the media fanfare as outlets collectively pounce on a fresh piece of narrative-affirming meat.

However, even mainstream scientists are casting serious shade on the methodology employed.

As weather and climate analyst, Ryan Maue, PhD posted on X:

“Unfortunately, the paper does not prove the climate change causation link.

“Comparing Atlantic storms from two 20-year periods: 1971-1990 vs. 2001-2020 simply conflates very well known multidecadal variability in the Atlantic e.g. inactive (1970-1994) vs. active period (since 1995) with climate change.

“This was hashed out in the literature almost 20 years ago and reiterated since then to an accepted consensus. It’s not clear why this research paper omits such well known and understood Atlantic basin scale changes over the past 5-decades.”

As one news outlet openly admits:

“While the study did not include an analysis that attempts to firmly identify the cause or causes of the more quickly intensifying storms, Garner interprets the results as a warning call on how climate change is raising sea surface temperatures.”

The sole author of the study, one Andra J. Garner, exposes her activist bias, calling for decarbonization and urgent climate action: “Without major changes in our behavior and a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, this is a trend that will continue to get more extreme.”

Maue goes further:

“Most research studies correlate the increase in SST over the past 50-years with activity metrics like ACE or number of named storms, hurricanes, or majors, etc. = environmental control of storm behavior like El Niño.

“But, lately papers are dating mining characteristics of individual storm behavior like rapid intensification that are highly sensitive to local conditions and storm-by-storm lifecycles, jamming them together in 20-year chunks and then comparing % to show climate change linkages.

“In the Atlantic, everyone should know that 1970-1994 was an inactive period and 1995-current is active — also 1944-1969 was active and is a function of natural variability. It’s like we’re completely forgetting the last 20-years of global warming and hurricanes research and instead blaming only one variable — SST for all Atlantic trends.

“If we look at global major hurricanes then we see there is no upward / downward trend in the past 30-40 years — when combined across the entire world:

“Individual basins are doing their own thing, like the Atlantic, so that can lead to the question if global metrics mean anything when the Pacific and Atlantic are anti-correlated (El Niño & La Niña).

“That means researchers need to examine each storm separately, classify its lifecycle and behavior, and then determine how/if climate change affected it. You need to separate the season/year from the individual storm events.

“So the analysis that needs to be performed is storm relative & include the actual SST and relative SST to basin, MEIv2 ENSO (El Niño) index, AMO & PDO, wind shear, humidity, and normalize to latitude and time of year with respect to peak of season since Pacific and Atlantic are different,” Maue concludes.

I, personally, prefer data analysts Zoe Phin’s methodology.

Does it make sense to count a 6-hour Category 3 storm the same as a 42-hour Category 3 storm?, asks Phin. Of course it doesn’t, such a thing would be misleading, but that is exactly what the climate cabal do.

A far better methodology, Phin contends, is to count the hours spent in certain wind speed categories — and that’s exactly what she did, and lo and behold, no trend was detected (more on that HERE).

Lowest Sunspot Number In More Than 6-Months

We’re approaching solar maximum, but the sun is hushed.

Today (Oct 20), just 39 sunspots pepper the Earth-facing solar disk.

This is the lowest number since April 7’s 33 sunspots.

Some contend that the peak of Solar Cycle 25 is already in.

I’m on the fence.

But this odd hush is compelling.

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