Grand Solar Minimum: The Future Looks Cold

[This is an updated version of an article originally published on I’m currently travelling from Portugal to the UK, and will be back to it with new posts on Monday, September 11]

In recent years, the Sun has been at its weakest state in more than a century, with the two most recent solar cycles (24 and 25) on course to be the weakest pair in more than 200 years, since the Dalton Minimum.

This is revealed by the sunspot count (shown below) — a great barometer for solar activity:

Sunspot count, SC5 to SC25 [SWPC/NOAA].

The Sun’s output ebbs and flows on a roughly 11-year cycle.

As visualized above, the most recently completed solar cycle (24) finished up closely matching those of ‘The Centennial Minimum’ (≈1880-1914) — the previous multi-cycle period of low output, aka a ‘Grand Solar Minimum’ (GSM).

Grand Solar Minimums themselves can also range in depth and length, and, crucially for all of inhabitants of Earth, these factors determine the severity of the accompanying ‘global cooling’.

The Centennial Minimum was a modest GSM.

Conversely, one of the strongest on record was the ‘Maunder Minimum’ (1645-1715) which, as documented by NASA, sent Europe and North America into a “deep freeze”:

“From 1650 to 1710, temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere plunged when the Sun entered a quiet phase now called the Maunder Minimum. During this period, very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the Sun, and the overall brightness of the Sun decreased slightly. Already in the midst of a colder-than-average period called the Little Ice Age, Europe and North America went into a deep freeze: alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland; sea ice crept south from the Arctic; and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze regularly—an event that is rare today.”

The above facts are no longer permitted in mainstream scientific debates, and calling them out sees you instantly dismissed as a conspiracy theorist. History, however, will view this censorship very poorly, likely seeing it as an illustration of the dangers of propagandizing.

Discovery, it would appear, is no longer welcome in the field of climate science, we apparently know all that there is to know. But in reality, this suppression is a necessity if the AGW train is to keep on rolling. It stands that the return of a cyclically waning Sun would instantly flush alarmists’ claims of a never-ending temperature rise down the proverbial pan.

The climate system is immensely complex; to claim otherwise exposes a blinding ignorance.

Case in point: while Earth’s overall temperature trends colder during prolonged bouts of low solar activity, not all regions experience the chill. As visualized in NASA’s ‘Maunder Minimum Reconstruction Map’ (shown below), areas such as the Arctic, Alaska, and the North Atlantic actually warm during spells of otherwise ‘global’ cooling.

It could be argued that this chimes with what we’re seeing today, and, unlike the baseless ‘Polar Amplification Theory’, could explain why the Arctic is warming while the Antarctic is cooling.

Temp change between 1780 (a year of normal solar activity) and 1680 (a year within the depths of the Maunder Minimum) — NASA.

The Sun also goes through Grand Solar MAXIMUMS, periods of unusually high solar activity.

The most recent maximum, ‘The Modern Maximum‘, ran through the years 1914 –the end of the Centennial Minimum– to 2007.

Global temperatures increased during this period (“global warming”) and have only recently, after a multi-year lag likely tied to ocean inertia, begun threatening to come back down.

Returning to past Grand Solar Minimums, ‘The Dalton Minimum’ was another key one.

It ran from 1790 to 1820, and is clearly discernible on the sunspot chart below:

Sunspot count, SC1 to SC25 [SWPC/NOAA].

Like the deeper Maunder before it, the Dalton brought about a period of lower-than-average global temperatures.

Historical documentation reveals that the Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2C decline over just 20 years, which devastated the country’s food production and led to widespread hardships and ultimately famine.

The Mechanics

Low solar activity impacts Earth’s weather/climate via a number of different mechanisms.

The most immediately noticeable impact is the reduction of energy entering the jet streams, which changes the jet’s usual strong and straight ZONAL flow to a weak and wavy MERIDIONAL one.

Depending on which side of the stream you’re on, this means you’re either in for a spell of anomalously cold or warm weather and/or a period of unusually dry or wet conditions:

This is a phenomenon long-predicted by those who study the Sun, and it’s one forecast to intensify as the Grand Solar Minimum continues its deepening.

Along with low solar activity’s impact on the jet streams, other ‘global cooling’ mechanisms include, the great conjunction, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and also The Beaufort Gyre—and its influence on the AMOC and so the climate overall.

Faced with these realities, I still question what it will take for the IPCC and their MSM lapdogs to admit that what they’ve been pedaling for the past 30+ years was based on a warped ideology, and not science.

Logic has now been twisted to such an extent that Arctic outbreaks (renamed Polar Vortexes) are now a direct result of global warming, i.e. warming = cooling; that pointing out past ‘climate fails’ is heresy; and climate lockdowns are perfectly rational.

I see the draconian future Orwell described materializing, and I fear the climate will be the least of our problems in the coming years as we seem to be ringing in the destruction of civilization all by ourselves.

‘Global Boiling’ or ‘Climate Change’ appears to be the excuse given for any freedom-stripping policy the elite deem fit.

However, rather than a ‘mann’-made phenomenon capable of being taxed away, the perceived climatic changes can be fully explained by cyclical ‘buckling’ of the jet streams (Zonal to Meridional), itself caused by a bout of historically low solar activity:

Take Europe this week, do alarmists really believe that it is carbon dioxide causing this:

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