Heavy Snow Pounds Eastern Europe, Much More To Come
Following a three-day snowfall event, Russia’s Volga region has been buried under a foot of snow — abnormally high totals for November.
The November norm for the city of Ulyanovsk–for example–is 8 cm (3.15 inches) but, and with a week of the month left to run, 24 cm (9.45 inches) of snow has already been documented.
Likewise in Izhevsk, the capital of the Udmurtia Republic, snowdrifts are “a month ahead of the calendar,” reports gismeteo.ru.
Looking ahead, “prolonged and heavy snowfalls will not stop in the coming days,” so states hmn.ru, speaking to Izhevsk. “In connection with this, there is another transport collapse in the city.”
Shifting westward, Belarus has declared an “orange” level of danger with heavy snow forecast to crash over the Norwegian Sea.
On Nov 23, strong winds and snowstorms duly arrived across the majority of the country.
Icy road conditions have been reported in western regions, with heavy snow and blizzards hitting the likes of the capital city Minsk.
For the majority of Europe, winter looks set to begin early as an Arctic Outbreak threatens to grip the continent:
The incoming snow also looks set to continue ‘Europe’s best start to a ski season in memory’:
These accumulations will add to what is another above-average snow season for the Northern Hemisphere:
Which is continuing the trend:
Lackluster El Niño
Despite the caterwaulings from ‘team perpetual crisis’, the recent El Niño is proving lackluster, and there is the real possibility that the phase has already peaked.
The latest data show it’s behaving unusually, lacking a strong atmospheric presence in the circulation.
This gives weight to JMA forecasts calling for a collapsing El Niño in the new year–and a potential reentering of La Niña territory by the summer:
If a period of global cooling is indeed on the cards then we would expect La Niñas to be the dominate ENSO pattern.
El Niño is a warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean shifts between warm and cold phases. We are currently in a warm phase (El Niño), following what was a rare ‘triple dip’ cold phase (La Niña).
You can see the ENSO regions across the tropical Pacific below. Regions 3 and 4 expand over the east and west tropical Pacific. The main region is seen in the image as the Nino 3.4 region. This is where the main strength of a warm/cold event is calculated.
Each ENSO phase has a different accompanying circulation and thus produces a different atmospheric response. This impacts the overall global circulation over time, changing the seasonal weather patterns across the world.
Below is the latest ocean anomaly analysis for November 2023:
Next is the ENSO region anomaly data for 2022-23:
The following image comes from NOAA Climate, and shows the typical circulation during an El Niño event.
Rising air over the central and eastern Pacific causes more storms and precipitation and lowers the pressure over the region. At the same time, descending in the western Pacific leads to stable weather and high-pressure conditions.
This is the direct way that ENSO impacts planetary weather; that is, via atmospheric pressure patterns: A rising atmospheric motion means lower pressure and more precipitation, a sinking motion means higher pressure and drier conditions.
Below is a look at the 2015 El Niño season, with blue representing rising air and brown depicting sinking air.
Note the expansive rising over the eastern and central Pacific and the comparatively large sinking in the west.
This is typical of a strong El Niño phase.
However, if we look at the same graphic depicting the latest forecast (for December 2023), we see this rising motion over the main ENSO regions is missing. This is unusual, and would suggest a weaker El Niño in the basic atmospheric circulation.
The AGW Party had pinned their hopes on a not only a strong but a “historically” strong El Niño event. What reality has so far delivered, however, is something of a dud, and latest modelling forecasts an uneventful tailing off.
Again, if a period of global cooling is indeed on the cards then we would expect La Niñas to be the dominate ENSO pattern.
Precipitation Data Refutes “Experts” Climate Crisis Claims
The alarmists’ narrative: Wet regions will get wetter, and dry will get drier. They argue burning fossil fuels is warming the planet and increasing evaporation: More water vapor causes more floods; more evaporation also dries the land causing more drought.
However, the scientific data paint an entirely different picture — as explains ecologist Jim Steele in a lengthy X post:
Kazemzadeh (2021), using satellite data, determined that 88% of the earth’s surface shows no trends in precipitation.
(So, no warming effect?)
Of the small remaining percentage of areas with significant trends, 50% show more rain while 50% experience less rain. That balance suggests rainfall trends are simply due to changes in circulation patterns that re-distribute where water-vapor rains out. This is especially true over the oceans, where 90% of all evaporated ocean water-vapor rains-out back to the ocean. The global hydrological cycle shows that changes in precipitation over land depends on when and where moisture rains-out. Additionally, lost wetlands and lost vegetation can reduce the recycling of water on land and cause a negative precipitation trend.
Despite landscape changes and in contrast to alarmists’ narratives, increasing rainfall trends are rare over the continents. Many droughts and floods are associated with El Niño/La Niña oscillations. Our past 2 decades experienced more La Nina-like conditions that have caused more drought in western United States, while simultaneously increasing monsoon rainfall and floods over Asia.
As a result, the largest positive rainfall trend (shown below in green) were observed in the highlands of Pakistan and northwest Indian region. Accordingly, alarmists opportunistically cherry picked the 2010 & 2022 Pakistan floods as proof of a climate crisis, and greedy governments demanded industrial nations pay for Pakistan’s flood damage by falsely attributing the floods to burning of fossil fuels.
Yet again, the data refute the alarmists’ attribution claims.
Scientists who actually study this region’s climate had concluded, “the 2010 Pakistan floods, although seemingly unprecedented, were well within natural variability of the monsoonal climate over the Indian subcontinent. … A rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña between spring and summer of 2010 appears to be the key element in triggering a vigorous monsoon of 2010.”
Furthermore, Pakistan’s flood and drought data since 1850 (below) clearly show how it is ENSO that causes alternating decades of floods and droughts, not global warming, explaining why three of Pakistan’s past seven droughts happened in the cooler 1800s.
But climate alarmists loathe to attribute any extreme events to such natural oscillations. So, in order to maintain their CO2 crisis narrative, they shamelessly invented a brand-new climate dynamic, claiming CO2 warming is now causing “climate whiplash”.
For more, watch Jim Steele’s video: Are Pakistan’s Floods You Fault And Should Americans Pay?
Following a long lull, the sun has fired back into life with dozens of dark cores now peppering the Earth-facing solar disk.
Over the past 24-hours alone, multiple overlapping coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have escaped the sun:
Analysts will have to spend some time unraveling these clouds to determine their trajectories.
However, a NASA model is already suggesting that one may be headed for Earth:
A CME could hit our planet’s magnetic field during the late hours of Saturday, November 25. So watch out for that.
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