Brazil Is Cooling; Australian Heat Overcooked; Ulawun Erupts To 50,000ft; + Solar Ramp-Up

Cap Allon

Brazil Is Cooling

Brazil is forecast to hold anomalously cold over the next few weeks, according to latest GFS runs.

GFS 2m Temp anomalies (Nov 23)
GFS 2m Temp anomalies (Nov 28)


This hints at the longer term cooling trend picked up by the country’s temperature stations.

The only weather station in Brazil with continuous data extending back to 1900 is that sited in the eastern city of Quixeramobim, points out Tony Heller on X, located in the state of Ceará:

The city of Quixeramobim.


According to data collated by NASA, the Quixeramobim temperature station shows cooling since 1960:

[NASA]


Australian Heat Overcooked

Much is being made of the heat and wildfires in Perth.

The hyperbole and propaganda is hypnotizing, as are the licking flames and swirling embers:


However, and as is always the case, a quick fact-check ruins the alarmist parade.

A thin slither of red doesn’t equal proof of a ‘climate crisis’:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) for Nov 23 [tropicaltidbits.com].


Looking ahead, it only gets colder:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) for Nov 27 [tropicaltidbits.com].


While zooming out, a cooling trend has emerged (as per the satellite data) of -0.132C per decade since 2013:

[UAH]


Ulawun Volcano Erupts To 50,000ft

Ulawun volcano exploded in spectacular fashion Monday, with a repeat eruption noted Tuesday.

Mount Ulawun, located on the island of New Britain in Papua New Guinea, erupted at around 3:30 PM local time Monday, firing volcanic ash as high as 50,000 feet (15km), according to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Darwin, Australia.


As well as that impressive, stratospheric boundary-reaching ash cloud, tall and incandescent lava fountains have been shooting into the sky, and a massive pyroclastic flow was seen racing down the flank.


Papua New Guinea’s Geohazards Management Division said Ulawun’s volcanic activity is expected to continue indefinitely, and raised the volcano’s risk level to the highest stage: four — the volcano likely isn’t done yet and is capable of powerful VEI 4s.

Rabaul Volcano Observatory (RVO) said activity at Ulawun was intensifying in the lead-up to Monday’s blasts.

During November 3rd through 18th, white gas-and-steam plumes of variable densities were seen rising from the summit crater, noted the observatory, and low-level booming noises were reported on November 9th.


Ulawun is one of the most active volcanoes in Papua New Guinea, which sits on the Pacific “Ring of Fire”. It has repeatedly erupted since 1700s, and had its last major eruption in 2019 — a VEI 4.

Explosive activity is continued into Tuesday, according to the VAAC Darwin, which warned of another ash plume rising to an estimated 40,000ft (12.2km).


Smoke and ash ejected beyond the stratospheric boundary (located as high as 65,000ft near the equator and as low as 23,000ft at the poles) result in long-lasting planetary cooling as the particulates block incoming sunlight.

Additionally, volcanic and seismic activity appear to correlate with changes in our Sun. Its global uptick is thought to be attributed to the drop-off in solar activity, a waning magnetosphere, and the resulting influx of Cosmic Rays penetrating silica-rich magma.

Conversely, geomagnetic storms can also be a trigger for eruptive events…


Solar Ramp-Up

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) recently released a “revised prediction” for the current solar cycle, which states that the upcoming solar maximum will arrive sooner and be more explosive than they initially forecast.

Following a multi-month long lull, the sun crackled back into life this week with 178 sunspots peppering the Earth-facing solar disk as of today, November 23.

Sunspot ‘AR3490-91-92’ –so big they named it thrice– poses a continued threat for flaring:


Sunspot AR3490-91-92 poses a continued threat [SDO/HMI]


Scientists forecasting solar weather now say that we are fast approaching an explosive peak in solar activity.

Is this what we’re seeing now?

The sun’s current cycle, Solar Cycle 25, officially began in early-2019.

At the time, NOAA’s SWPC predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would most likely peak at some point in 2025 and be underwhelming compared with average cycles, much like its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24.

They were wrong, SC25 ramped-up quicker than expected and is now threatening to end prematurely (potentially with a bang).

On October 25, the SWPC finally issued a “revised prediction” for Solar Cycle 25 and acknowledged that its initial estimations were “no longer reliable enough for SWPC’s customers”–speaking to its private space exploration and satellite companies.

The new update states that “solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level” than initially predicted and that solar maximum could come as early as January next year (2024) and no later than October.

For more on that:

Scientists Acknowledge They Got It Wrong, That The Peak Of Solar Cycle 25 Is Fast Approaching


Electroverse On Lockdown

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We are living off-grid in Portugal, which keeps costs down, growing our own food and harnessing our own energy, but properly preparing the land, etc. takes funds that I will have to seek elsewhere unless I can gain more subscribers on Patreon and/or Substack.

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