Scientists Acknowledge They Got It Wrong, That The Peak Of Solar Cycle 25 Is Fast Approaching
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has released a “revised prediction” for the current solar cycle, which states that the upcoming solar maximum will arrive sooner and be more explosive than they initially forecast, reports Live Science.
Scientists forecasting solar weather now say that we are fast approaching an explosive peak in solar activity.
The sun’s current cycle, Solar Cycle 25, officially began in early-2019.
At the time, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would most likely peak at some point in 2025 and be underwhelming compared with average cycles, much like its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24.
They were wrong, SC25 ramped-up quicker than expected and is now threatening to end prematurely (potentially with a bang).
On October 25, the SWPC finally issued a “revised prediction” for Solar Cycle 25 and acknowledged that its initial estimations were “no longer reliable enough for SWPC’s customers”–speaking to its private space exploration and satellite companies.
The new update states that “solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level” than initially predicted and that solar maximum could come as early as January next year and no later than October.
Also worth noting, despite SC25’s stronger than expected start, the cycle is still running historically weak, and will comfortably conclude as such if its max does indeed arrive promptly:
A more active solar cycle peak could lead to disruptions here on Earth.
As I reported Tuesday, this week marks the 20th anniversary of the Great Halloween Storm of 2003.
Solar Cycle 23 was winding down this time 20 years ago, and space weather forecasters were talking about how quiet things would soon become. Suddenly, the sun unleashed two of the strongest solar flares of the Space Age: an X17 flare on Oct 28, followed by an X10 on Oct 29, 2003. Both hurled fast-moving Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) directly toward Earth.
Many Earth-orbiting satellites experienced data outages, reboots and even unwanted thruster firings. Some operators simply gave up and turned their instruments off. Many of Earth’s satellites were actually ‘lost’.
In a 2020 paper entitled “Flying Through Uncertainty,” USAF satellite operators recalled how “the majority of satellites (in low Earth orbit) were temporarily lost, requiring several days of around-the-clock work to reestablish their positions.”
Most satellite operators today have never experienced anything like the Halloween storms. “That’s a problem,” writes Dr Tony Phillips of spaceweather.com, “because the number of objects they need to track has sharply increased.”
Since 2003, the population of active satellites has ballooned to more than 7,000, with an additional 20,000+ pieces of debris larger than 10 cm. Losing track of so many objects in such a congested environment could theoretically trigger a cascade of collisions, rendering low Earth orbit unusable for years following an extreme geomagnetic storm.
Given our ever-increasing dependence on this tech, as well our planet’s ever-waning magnetic field strength, that’s scary.
A more active solar maximum poses a “larger hazard for these critical technologies and services,” NOAA representatives wrote in their updated forecast. Also, wildlife experts have warned that a more active solar maximum could disorient animals that rely on Earth’s magnetic field to navigate, such as large whales and migrating birds.
Moving forward, SWPC will now shift to a novel, more flexible forecast system to be updated at the start of every month.
“We expect that our new experimental forecast will be much more accurate than the 2019 panel prediction and, unlike previous solar cycle predictions, it will be continuously updated on a monthly basis as new sunspot observations become available,” explained Mark Miesch, a solar physicist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder and lead researcher at SWPC.
“It’s a pretty significant change.”
Interesting update from NOAA. Although their claim that the new forecast ‘is better because it will be updated monthly’ is a little suspect. My guess is they haven’t changed much in their forecast method, they’re simply giving themselves a tool to more quickly correct their mistakes. Not a criticism, just an observation.
The SWPC pretty much had to offer an updated estimate of the end of Cycle 25, lest they look foolish in allowing their previous forecast to stand even after most others say SC 25 has ended.
As I said yesterday, I don’t know why the SWPC hasn’t always offered interim updates as a matter of course. An 11-yr cycle allows plenty of room for periodic observations where they either adjust or affirm their current thinking and in so doing create more popular buzz and perhaps additional funding as well.
warmer than average sea surface temp going to bring a lot of wet to western europe this warmer than average winter 23/24, , storm ciaran in uk and the one to follow are beasts with a low bottom, and a lot of wind.,
,This article could be sub titled, “Would a simple faraday cage protect your devices from even gamma rays in the event of a mega big sun burp and why that might not even matter if they are unplugged and you are outside chopping wood or carrying water wearing a tin foil hat for protection just in case a solar flare happens ,,(watch out for falling space junk though)
Warmer sea surface leads to more evaporation and warmer air can hold more moisture which will condense and fall as rain/snow as the air rises and cools. This is undisputable science and can be proved in simple lab experiments, but in the real world when we’re only talking about a difference of a couple of degrees how much difference does this make?
The amount of precipitation for Europe is far more dependent on whether areas are under high or low pressure. Low pressure results in far more precipitation than high pressure. Wind direction is also important, Easterly winds lead to drier weather apart from areas such as Eastern UK that can sea effect snow. Therefore simply saying that above average SSTs in the Atlantic will lead to a wet winter for Europe is far too simplistic.
Warmer SST’s means wet will drop more water. Snow, hail. rain.
I hope that is not too complex.
The uk , ireland doesnt have a climate, it has weather, mostly the wind /wet blow in from the atlantic, like the jest stream mostly does or did cause it makes you laugh! you are right though occasionally something else happens like a northerly , a beast from the east or a summer azores high pressure southerly guff. The atmosphere is complex . As for the americas im not sure what 23/24 winter is going to do , im only observing europe.but probably the lower states are going to freeze as the jest stream buckles with a few polar vortex shituations.
Let’s see if it IS really a warmer than average winter 23-24.. I will watch the freezing -to-death-count for this winter compared to winter of 22-23. Biggest example of unprepared freezing temps is Texas…the frozen corpse figure was around 700 plus. Oil rich Texas depended heavily on solar (very little sun), windmills (little wind, and the machines froze up).OH, and the greatest prepper of all, who writes and sells many supplements…did not put diesel anti-gel into ANY of h is diesel generators, tractors, etc. Strangely, coal and gas electric power plants , and there are even some hydro-electric sources (here in North Carolina) can plow through no sun, and no wind. Why is that? Just askin’
Heart attacks and strokes also increase in the cooler months. When it gets cool or cold the blood vessels constrict to save heat, this increases the blood pressure leading to increased heart attacks and strokes, in the cooler months.
Looks like masonic filosofy where BS is covered with more BS.
“Finally, we use other terminator-related superposed epoch analyses developed in parallel work we project the timing of SC25 sunspot maximum to occur between late 2023 to mid 2024.”
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspas.2023.1050523/full