Russia’s Deep Freeze; Iceland At -20C; Study: 80% Of Today’s Cat 5 Hurricanes Would’ve Been Missed In 1940s–50s; Warming Natural, Not CO2; New Study: Antarctica Has Cooled Since 2003; + Sunspots Slip
Russia’s Deep Freeze; Iceland At -20C; Study: 80% Of Today’s Cat 5 Hurricanes Would’ve Been Missed In 1940s–50s; Warming Natural, Not CO2; New Study: Antarctica Has Cooled Since 2003; + Sunspots Slip
Already a qualifying Patreon member? Refresh to access this content.
4 Thoughts to “Russia’s Deep Freeze; Iceland At -20C; Study: 80% Of Today’s Cat 5 Hurricanes Would’ve Been Missed In 1940s–50s; Warming Natural, Not CO2; New Study: Antarctica Has Cooled Since 2003; + Sunspots Slip”
On the solar activity. There is a “magic peak value” (my term, I forget theirs) by a number of astrophysicists for consecutive cycles which signals a significant solar minimum. That number is an average value of approximately 150. Grand solar minimums drop more down into the 50-75 or less range.
We are awfully close to the first requirement with the peak in this cycle hitting about 160.
NOT mentioned in the article is ocean temps usually trail solar activity by about 20 years. We are about there and we are seeing a decrease in temps. 2030 is expected to be the beginning of a more noticeable downward trend reaching its bottom about 20 years after that and then holding for a time dependent on the number of minimal solar cycles we see.
How much activity drops will depend on how many cycles in the sun coincide towards a minimum. You have, in approximation, a 100 year, 200 year, 400 year, 1000 year and 2450 year cycle. Variations are +/- 11 years and 25 years in the first two, with higher variations in dates for longer cycles. As the little ice age is assumed to have started in the 1640’s or 50’s, the Dalton in the 1800s. That gives a lot of credence for the 100, 200, and 400 year cycles to hit a concurrent low. I
Oh yeah- cycle names
11 year- Schwabe
100 year Gleissberg
200 year- De Vries around 1800 (Dalton minimum)
400 year- Gregorian Last minimum mid 1600’s (Little Ice age)
1000 year- Eddy Last minimum was in the little ice age, so not swinging to a minimum at this time
2450 year- Bray (Also called the Bray solar and climate cycle) last minimum was around 400 BC
Same in Missouri. Trees just starting to turn in earnest now, very late, I’m guessing because October has been so warm. Looks like we might finally hit freezing soon, but it’s been warmer than predicted at night, and the forecast is only for 31F.
I’m pretty sure that with mid 20th Century technology Hurricane Melissa would of been classed as category 4. The 185mph winds that alarmist media are claiming were probably estimated from satellite data or detected by hurricane hunter aircraft in a very small area of the storm. The wind speeds recorded by land based weather stations were probably much lower.
Unlock with Patreon
Posted in an earlier article on the sun
On the solar activity. There is a “magic peak value” (my term, I forget theirs) by a number of astrophysicists for consecutive cycles which signals a significant solar minimum. That number is an average value of approximately 150. Grand solar minimums drop more down into the 50-75 or less range.
We are awfully close to the first requirement with the peak in this cycle hitting about 160.
NOT mentioned in the article is ocean temps usually trail solar activity by about 20 years. We are about there and we are seeing a decrease in temps. 2030 is expected to be the beginning of a more noticeable downward trend reaching its bottom about 20 years after that and then holding for a time dependent on the number of minimal solar cycles we see.
How much activity drops will depend on how many cycles in the sun coincide towards a minimum. You have, in approximation, a 100 year, 200 year, 400 year, 1000 year and 2450 year cycle. Variations are +/- 11 years and 25 years in the first two, with higher variations in dates for longer cycles. As the little ice age is assumed to have started in the 1640’s or 50’s, the Dalton in the 1800s. That gives a lot of credence for the 100, 200, and 400 year cycles to hit a concurrent low. I
Oh yeah- cycle names
11 year- Schwabe
100 year Gleissberg
200 year- De Vries around 1800 (Dalton minimum)
400 year- Gregorian Last minimum mid 1600’s (Little Ice age)
1000 year- Eddy Last minimum was in the little ice age, so not swinging to a minimum at this time
2450 year- Bray (Also called the Bray solar and climate cycle) last minimum was around 400 BC
Notice anything significant?
Europe with temperatures all above average during October probably same during November.
But you dont talk about this here
Same in Missouri. Trees just starting to turn in earnest now, very late, I’m guessing because October has been so warm. Looks like we might finally hit freezing soon, but it’s been warmer than predicted at night, and the forecast is only for 31F.
I’m pretty sure that with mid 20th Century technology Hurricane Melissa would of been classed as category 4. The 185mph winds that alarmist media are claiming were probably estimated from satellite data or detected by hurricane hunter aircraft in a very small area of the storm. The wind speeds recorded by land based weather stations were probably much lower.