Russia’s Deep Freeze; Iceland At -20C; Study: 80% Of Today’s Cat 5 Hurricanes Would’ve Been Missed In 1940s–50s; Warming Natural, Not CO2; New Study: Antarctica Has Cooled Since 2003; + Sunspots Slip
Russia’s Deep Freeze; Iceland At -20C; Study: 80% Of Today’s Cat 5 Hurricanes Would’ve Been Missed In 1940s–50s; Warming Natural, Not CO2; New Study: Antarctica Has Cooled Since 2003; + Sunspots Slip
Already a qualifying Patreon member? Refresh to access this content.
9 Thoughts to “Russia’s Deep Freeze; Iceland At -20C; Study: 80% Of Today’s Cat 5 Hurricanes Would’ve Been Missed In 1940s–50s; Warming Natural, Not CO2; New Study: Antarctica Has Cooled Since 2003; + Sunspots Slip”
On the solar activity. There is a “magic peak value” (my term, I forget theirs) by a number of astrophysicists for consecutive cycles which signals a significant solar minimum. That number is an average value of approximately 150. Grand solar minimums drop more down into the 50-75 or less range.
We are awfully close to the first requirement with the peak in this cycle hitting about 160.
NOT mentioned in the article is ocean temps usually trail solar activity by about 20 years. We are about there and we are seeing a decrease in temps. 2030 is expected to be the beginning of a more noticeable downward trend reaching its bottom about 20 years after that and then holding for a time dependent on the number of minimal solar cycles we see.
How much activity drops will depend on how many cycles in the sun coincide towards a minimum. You have, in approximation, a 100 year, 200 year, 400 year, 1000 year and 2450 year cycle. Variations are +/- 11 years and 25 years in the first two, with higher variations in dates for longer cycles. As the little ice age is assumed to have started in the 1640’s or 50’s, the Dalton in the 1800s. That gives a lot of credence for the 100, 200, and 400 year cycles to hit a concurrent low. I
Oh yeah- cycle names
11 year- Schwabe
100 year Gleissberg
200 year- De Vries around 1800 (Dalton minimum)
400 year- Gregorian Last minimum mid 1600’s (Little Ice age)
1000 year- Eddy Last minimum was in the little ice age, so not swinging to a minimum at this time
2450 year- Bray (Also called the Bray solar and climate cycle) last minimum was around 400 BC
Same in Missouri. Trees just starting to turn in earnest now, very late, I’m guessing because October has been so warm. Looks like we might finally hit freezing soon, but it’s been warmer than predicted at night, and the forecast is only for 31F.
I keep hearing this – we are entering a period of cooling, but I’m yet to see any real change. Way less snow here in NZ than when I was a child (60 years ago).
I’m pretty sure that with mid 20th Century technology Hurricane Melissa would of been classed as category 4. The 185mph winds that alarmist media are claiming were probably estimated from satellite data or detected by hurricane hunter aircraft in a very small area of the storm. The wind speeds recorded by land based weather stations were probably much lower.
Hurricanes were significantly stronger in the past, including the infamous Camille of ’69 and the Labor Day Storm of 1935.
No hurricanes making landfall in the US have ever reached such intensity again as to sustained wind speeds (or produced such widespread damage). There has been a well documented downward trend of TC’s worldwide since 1995 as to intensity and how long they maintain such strength over the ocean, known as the ACE index. Take your curser to the top of that chart showing the ACE since 1995-1998. You can see a downward trend since that time, especially since 2022.
Also worth noting is that the modern era “over estimates” the strength of hurricanes in many cases. One good example of “false” or misleading reports was Idalia of 2023 which made landfall in North Florida. The NHC claimed this storm to be a cat 3, but none of the reporting stations from NWS Tallahassee had any gusts representative of a cat 3 whatsoever. Strongest reported wind “gust” was 75mph – not even indicative of a cat 1. (note that a cat 1 hurricane must have “sustained” winds of at least 75mph) None of that threshold was met with Idalia and certain other storms either. (Wind gusts from a cat 3 hurricane is typically in the 130mph+ range). Idalia was NOT even close to a cat 3 at landfall.
This raises the question of how they estimate the strength of these storms at sea. Central pressure measurements or aircraft reports are one thing, but nobody can claim a cat 5 occurring as fact without a reliable ship report or other measuring device in the cyclone reporting such surface (sustained) winds supporting that claim. Model intensity or satellite intensity estimates are not to be trusted as fact.
Bottom line: Don’t buy their claims as accurate unless a REPORTING STATION AT GROUND LEVEL supports that claim.
Post damage reports can be misleading as to classifying cyclone strength, especially in third world countries where shoddy construction standards are the norm, such as card board houses or weakly build structures.
The UAH global temperature for October 2025 is going to drop to between +0.2 and +0.4 degrees.
Major influence is Negative Southern Annular Mode allowing roaring forties type winds and low-pressure systems to move further North, overturning the sea surface and submerging much of the Southern SST heatwave.
The resulting cooler Southern SST is feeding the current La Nina.
I unreservedly apologize for recently referring to the current La Nina as an El Nino.
Unlock with Patreon
Posted in an earlier article on the sun
On the solar activity. There is a “magic peak value” (my term, I forget theirs) by a number of astrophysicists for consecutive cycles which signals a significant solar minimum. That number is an average value of approximately 150. Grand solar minimums drop more down into the 50-75 or less range.
We are awfully close to the first requirement with the peak in this cycle hitting about 160.
NOT mentioned in the article is ocean temps usually trail solar activity by about 20 years. We are about there and we are seeing a decrease in temps. 2030 is expected to be the beginning of a more noticeable downward trend reaching its bottom about 20 years after that and then holding for a time dependent on the number of minimal solar cycles we see.
How much activity drops will depend on how many cycles in the sun coincide towards a minimum. You have, in approximation, a 100 year, 200 year, 400 year, 1000 year and 2450 year cycle. Variations are +/- 11 years and 25 years in the first two, with higher variations in dates for longer cycles. As the little ice age is assumed to have started in the 1640’s or 50’s, the Dalton in the 1800s. That gives a lot of credence for the 100, 200, and 400 year cycles to hit a concurrent low. I
Oh yeah- cycle names
11 year- Schwabe
100 year Gleissberg
200 year- De Vries around 1800 (Dalton minimum)
400 year- Gregorian Last minimum mid 1600’s (Little Ice age)
1000 year- Eddy Last minimum was in the little ice age, so not swinging to a minimum at this time
2450 year- Bray (Also called the Bray solar and climate cycle) last minimum was around 400 BC
Notice anything significant?
Europe with temperatures all above average during October probably same during November.
But you dont talk about this here
Same in Missouri. Trees just starting to turn in earnest now, very late, I’m guessing because October has been so warm. Looks like we might finally hit freezing soon, but it’s been warmer than predicted at night, and the forecast is only for 31F.
I keep hearing this – we are entering a period of cooling, but I’m yet to see any real change. Way less snow here in NZ than when I was a child (60 years ago).
I’m pretty sure that with mid 20th Century technology Hurricane Melissa would of been classed as category 4. The 185mph winds that alarmist media are claiming were probably estimated from satellite data or detected by hurricane hunter aircraft in a very small area of the storm. The wind speeds recorded by land based weather stations were probably much lower.
Hurricanes were significantly stronger in the past, including the infamous Camille of ’69 and the Labor Day Storm of 1935.
No hurricanes making landfall in the US have ever reached such intensity again as to sustained wind speeds (or produced such widespread damage). There has been a well documented downward trend of TC’s worldwide since 1995 as to intensity and how long they maintain such strength over the ocean, known as the ACE index. Take your curser to the top of that chart showing the ACE since 1995-1998. You can see a downward trend since that time, especially since 2022.
Also worth noting is that the modern era “over estimates” the strength of hurricanes in many cases. One good example of “false” or misleading reports was Idalia of 2023 which made landfall in North Florida. The NHC claimed this storm to be a cat 3, but none of the reporting stations from NWS Tallahassee had any gusts representative of a cat 3 whatsoever. Strongest reported wind “gust” was 75mph – not even indicative of a cat 1. (note that a cat 1 hurricane must have “sustained” winds of at least 75mph) None of that threshold was met with Idalia and certain other storms either. (Wind gusts from a cat 3 hurricane is typically in the 130mph+ range). Idalia was NOT even close to a cat 3 at landfall.
This raises the question of how they estimate the strength of these storms at sea. Central pressure measurements or aircraft reports are one thing, but nobody can claim a cat 5 occurring as fact without a reliable ship report or other measuring device in the cyclone reporting such surface (sustained) winds supporting that claim. Model intensity or satellite intensity estimates are not to be trusted as fact.
Bottom line: Don’t buy their claims as accurate unless a REPORTING STATION AT GROUND LEVEL supports that claim.
Post damage reports can be misleading as to classifying cyclone strength, especially in third world countries where shoddy construction standards are the norm, such as card board houses or weakly build structures.
The UAH global temperature for October 2025 is going to drop to between +0.2 and +0.4 degrees.
Major influence is Negative Southern Annular Mode allowing roaring forties type winds and low-pressure systems to move further North, overturning the sea surface and submerging much of the Southern SST heatwave.
The resulting cooler Southern SST is feeding the current La Nina.
I unreservedly apologize for recently referring to the current La Nina as an El Nino.
We forgive you, Muffin. Nobody’s purrfect…😽
Thanks Deb.
Up until then, I was always the one to cast the first stone.
If my global temperature prediction is not accurate I will fade away into a shadow of infamy, with a bikini bottom twisted around my neck, probably.